tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 15, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
look to remedy. we will see how cyclical tech really is and how structural that story can be in the sector. scarlet: does netflix count as tech when they report tomorrow? luke: super tech come anything in the overall benchmark down lower, zero point a percent. but this is a market that wants to float higher. like those little floating devices when you go swimming. let's take a look at what is driving some of the action. abigail, why don't you get us started. abigail: i'm looking at a chart from pavilion global markets. they say they are not sure why investors are so bullish. in white, we are looking at a ratio of the equal weighted s&p 500 index index to the actual
index. the s&p 500 at more than 150%. tremendous volatility for the equal weighted ratio. this ratio goes down far more. 20 11-2012,e in also true in 2015. certainly true in 2018, 2019. the waiting for the s&p 500 index, microsoft, apple, that ing.e was an equal weight >> going a little broader, yes, we saw some mild weakness in the stock market, but we are seeing sustained interest in spy. last week, more than $5.5 billion entered the fund, the largest weekly inflow since back
in december. the picture is distinctly different from then. the last time we saw an inflow of this magnitude, the s&p 500 was on the cusp of a bear market. now we are near record highs. romaine: the biggest decline or today in the s&p 500, a a lot of this came on the back of the news that it was selling off its epsilon unit. this is a credit card company. this is basically the data collection system and also did a lot of marketing. most people expected this unit to be sold. the expectation is that it would have sold for a lot more than that. , there is some concern that without this marketing business, this company broadertially a services company. this out, and the
potential sale of a third unit, this company won't be as attractive as it used to be. ben.ine: still with us is i want to get your take on m&a. we had a bit of a flow of it today, the sexy world of waste management. ben: i think it will stay pretty strong. i think last year was the all-time record for global m&a. with rates this low, debt levels, corporate's not as bad as people think they are. i think this will kind of be the last hurrah for m&a. joe: what do you feel about the global situation? i think there's a global view china has some green shoes,
then europe will follow. does the global economy look better to you and, therefore, companies look -- companies with global exposure have a better look. ben: it looks less bad. we discounted the amount of easing and that gave you that big cyclical opportunity. above trend toward trend, i think that is a decent place to be. it is also not strong enough to put bond yields up. you're closer to this goldilocks 2016-2017. of scarlet: the definition of goldilocks and the u.s., is there a scenario in asia as well? >> i've been going with the goldilocks version because it is like the 2017 version. i think that is more what you
see in the global aspect. we do have a low inflation that is somewhat more structural and we do have growth that is sustained, positive, but slower than we had during this synchronized growth period. is outperforming a lot of other markets. chinese a shares are up. but money isn em, going to the asset class as a whole and it is probably a good time to sort through em's. up over 20% in local currency terms. caroline: talking of local currency and therefore the u.s. dollar, finally some weakness in the u.s. dollar but we are still up significantly compared to this time last year. you mentioned the dollar in the whole margin discussion. where do you think it is going?
ben: if we were looking for significant dollar strength, we would probably be underway here. i think that's a strong enough story to sort of leapfrog over dollar resilience. i think that is what you've seen in the last six months. whole thing ore pockets that look more interesting than others? ben: today, it is pretty much all big em's. those which do a lot of business in emerging markets are trading better than em today. that is basically large-cap. onrlet: do they need to rely the u.s., for instance, the s&p 5000, to continue to roll on? can i don't think they rally if the u.s. sells off
significantly. outperform significant inflows in the fourth quarter. part of that was china, part of that was mci. but there is some sort of structural change going on. a lot of this is anchored by china. they are more important than they have ever been. caroline: the trade discussions reemerging today. >> i think it would have to take something very good to the upside or very bad to the downside to really move the needle on trade. i think a lot of the pessimism ,as priced in early this year early last year. i don't think it is as big of a needle as the basic china reflation stories of the credit cycle starting to pick up again. ben: i think it is the icing on the cake.
and caroline hyde. romaine: i'm ramon bostick. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. caroline: it was a down day, the stock market closing about -- about 2900 on the s&p. earnings coming up short and goldman ceo calls the start to the year muted. a new phase of the smartphone industry. samsung showcases its folding phone as the legal battle between apple and qualcomm comes to a head. a fire breaks out at the notre dame cathedral in paris. let's talk big banks. goldman delivering better than expected results from the surface but their leaders were left to explain. start with goldman. it seemed to be the future
forecast for the trader and revenue. >> it is a tale of two different worlds. largely driven by lower taxes and expenses. division, a lot of the call spent with traders and analysts was focused on whether they could change the footprint of the main trading division. the numbers were fine. they were affected by the trading slump but that was all of wall street. it was really the trading aspect, how they can rebuild the division and get consistent returns going forward. -- ieason why the shares believe it was one of the worst performances this year for the goldman stock.
if everybody knows the trading environment is great, are investors homing in on something that they think is going on at the bank? 18 was a strong quarter. bankeason it affects a like goldman and stanley, the trading outlook isn't that great. weigh aeight -- a will lot more on these banks. romaine: the shares in citigroup held up a little bit better than goldman today. you had an efficiency ratio that dropped but you also had that surprisingly fixed trading revenue. 's bond trading revenue was higher than last year. a completely different dynamic at play. a lot the investor focus seems to be on the vast consumer unit.
you have not really seen any great revenue growth. measly deposit growth. that's a division where they trying to time revamp. focus on the digital banking franchise. to see someme action. one week before the earnings, a shakeup on the management side. caroline: what about inspiring confidence for tomorrow, bank of america, and going forward? sridhar: probably some of the same dynamics in play. the quarter started off much worse than how it ended. the bigger picture
dynamics, you have a economy that is so strong. there is still more across-the-board sort of a ho-hum quarter. investorsank that were clearly excited about was jp morgan. what overall is in about them that they -- that others haven't really been able to replicate. the results are better than estimates and that is really what gave the stocks a bit of a bump. if you look at some of the , they being done today are just giving up some of those games. romaine: -- those gains. romaine: we have some news on deutsche bank. it seems like there is a lot of evidence as to why it should happen. it feelsone month in,
like there are more problems than when we started out. you have labor reps who are extremely concerned, angry, furious about the possibility of 30,000 job losses. today, that they might have to give up $30,000 in revenue. that is just sort of the latest hurdle in the risks of obstacles we have seen over the past few months. joe: thank you very much. caroline: we've got some breaking news out of salesforce. salesforce.org will be integrated into the company. they are updating their guidance and therefore boosting the their four-year adjusted earnings-per-share. this is bloomberg. ♪
about whattories else is trending across the bloomberg universe. terminal users, you are learning about lori loughlin and her fashion designer husband who pled not guilty after being indicted last week. is apleading not guilty ceo, all three said they would waive their charges of arraignment on conspiracy to commit fraud. the online upstart that sells cars through vending machines. they allow customers to choose cars and complete purchases in 10 minutes. $4.7 worth a combined billion. we are reporting that
millennials are giving a new life to the house plunge industry. and are said to want to try connect with nature. including1.7 billion 50% in the past three years. you will find all of these stories on the terminal, on bloomberg.com, and of course at tictoc on twitter. romaine: back to some breaking news on salesforce. the company is coming out with new fiscal guidance saying that an adjusted basis of $2.56 per share. some of this appears to be tied to the combination that they are saying of their salesforce.org into the rest of the company. joe: turning now to shares of patria, which fell during training today. companydian cannabis
missing estimates. torontoa joins us from with the story. -- why is severe there a severe market reaction today? >> the company reported a $50 million write-down on its assets. it missed expectations on revenue. it's margins fell significantly. it sold fewer grams of cannabis in the quarter compared to a year ago when canada didn't even have a recreational market yet. it plays into what some of the more bearish analysts had been saying, that first quarter expectations on the street for the company are far too high. some are saying, we need to significantly adjust those expectations downwards. otherwise, we will continue to see the dramatic stock drops. did theyin the world
sell less cannabis in this quarter than they did when it wasn't even legal a year ago? >> a year ago, we had the medical market, so there was some form of legal cannabis, but they said they had issues with packaging and distribution. a lot of companies have struggled to get packaging lines up and running to meet government packaging scandal -- government packaging standards and those sort of things. the ceo said today they were holding employee parties where employees were putting cannabis in bottles by hand. they are beginning to automate that which will improve their cost structure and so on. on a motion -- automation probably won't start to improve earnings until a few quarters. romaine: is there any sort of to therough from aphria
rest of the industry, especially bigger players? >> we have seen other stocks dropping across the board. maybey, investors are reevaluating expectations for this quarter and may be taking note of some of those more bearish analyst comments that this quarter may be more disappointing than they had assumed and that we might see week revenue across-the-board, partially because the retail market hasn't rolled out in the way some people expected. caroline: we love you for your analysis. thank you, taking us across the board when it comes to the cannabis sector. thisca's top stocks century isn't apple or amazon. the energy drink company, monster beverage, has returned since 2000.0%
shares have fallen 18% in the last couple of weeks. new competitors such as coke and amazon have entered the market. the iphone will go into mass production in india this year according to foxconn, the largest assembler of the devices. india has become the fastest growing smartphone market in the world. that is your business flash update. joe: now to a developing story. devastatingly notre dame cathedral in paris. authorities saying that so far the source of the fire is unknown and no injuries have been reported. thousands were forced to evacuate as french president emmanuel macron postponed a policy speech. greg, what is the latest on what, if anything, in the cathedral, will be salvaged?
>> it is not good news. the fire is not under control and as you see in the footage, it is kind of right at the two bell towers. bells fall inthe one of the towers, it could take the whole tower down with it. we are still in a very, very perilous stage. obviously we know this is an iconic global landmark. can you give us a sense of what kind of a draw it is in regards to tourism and the economy in paris? gets an average day, it 30,000 visitors, a can be up to 50,000 visitors some days. if you see a road sign in france to paris, it is to the cathedral, it is .0 for the road
system in the country. many of the events in french history have taken place there, from napoleon crowning himself inthe liberation mass held 1944. it is a completely crucial part of the life of the city. hindalco has been saying that the artwork has at least been brought to safety in some ways, greg. it is hampering to some extent policymaking in france. emmanuel macron, his latest future for the country to a certain extent, and he has had to postpone that. managed to get some of the artwork out according to the police, but a lot of it is stuff that you can't move. macron was due to give
a big speech tonight. he was due to give a televised address at a :00 p.m. where he would outline a whole bunch of measures -- at a :00 p.m. where he said he would outline a whole bunch of measures responsive to the yellowjacket protest in france. he has postponed that. we don't know when he's going to do that speech. he is there on the site. is snarled up around the city because it has been such a central crossroads. what aard to underplay major thing this is. caroline: greg, thank you, reporting from paris. some more breaking news on the unfolding disaster. paris notre dame cathedral is still one quarter on fire. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
mark: we have been reporting an official with france's interior ministry says firefighters may notre dame to save cathedral, which is engulfed in flames. flames earlier reached one of the cathedral's towers and brought down the spire that extended over 300 feet into the air. french president emmanuel macron nationalng it as a emergency. he went straight into meetings at the nearby paris police headquarters.
-- earlier,cro macron tweeted that the nation is in sorrow. seepope tweeted, the holy is with sadness about the cathedral. a symbol of catholicism in france and the world. at the time the fire broke out, some restoration work was being done in the cathedral. the u.s. terrorism label for iran's revolutionary guard formally took effect today. it is the first-ever designation of its kind and it adds a layer of sanctions to iran's elite military unit. it makes it a crime for anyone in u.s. jurisdictions to provide the crown with -- to provide the group with support. early 2020 candidates are
declaring money troubles. nine of the more than a dozen declared candidates showed democrats collectively raised about $66 million since january. president trump has raised $30 million during the first quarter. heress lori loughlin, fashion designer husband, and other parents are pleading not guilty in the college admissions bribery scam. they were indicted last week. they were accused of paying $500,000 in bribes to get their daughters admitted to the university of southern california. actress felicity huffman and 12 other parents have agreed to plead guilty. global news 24 hours a day on twitter,t tictoc on powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. take a secondoe:
glance. the fed could be looking at a policy change up. we will have a deeper dive into what went wrong. for more, we are joined by bloomberg news federal reserve reporter. we know the fed hasn't been able to generate the inflation it wanted and that has caused a lot of rethinking, but you had a piece today saying that the fed is looking at its framework in dramatic ways, essentially ripping up the entire playbook. >> we had very low unemployment for the last year. but inflation really has just not gone up much. in fact, it is sliding down. policymakers are looking at this and saying, what is wrong with the policy side? inflation expectations must be slipping. there was just a conference at the minneapolis fed last week where people were really more
focused on the employment side of the mandate and questioning whether the problem is just that we have not created enough jobs and run the labor markets tight enough to raise inflation. kind of the key insight here is that over the last 40 or 50 years or so, the fed has really tied its definition of full employment to the rate that generates inflation. when you are kind of doing this review of your inflation framework, that is going to cause questions, and that is why that theory is kind of open again. the laborit is about share. he joined the fed last september, and this is something he has been writing about, and that is labor share income.
his measure of the share of national income. in previous expansions, midcycle, it tends to rise again. when you think about the whole theory of low unemployment leading to higher inflation, the way it works is that higher inflation pushes wages up and then businesses have to pass that on an higher prices. what this labor chart shows is that maybe there's another option. maybe profit margins are so high right now that companies can go ahead and let wage growth -- wage growth accelerated without having to raise prices, and that could be the missing link that explains why the old theory is working. romaine: you always come armed with a million charts and that makes our job easier. you have a chart that talks about the unemployment rate and specifically how the fed has missed the mark. matthew: if you kind of go back
to when this theory was adopted aroundfed, that was 1980. you can see that, since 1980 on this chart, unemployment has tended to be a lot higher. their definition of full employment, which is the blue line. economy was at full employment more of the time. that is one of the reasons why the unemployment side of the mandate as start to become part of the debate. 1980,ack record since since this theory was adopted, it has been not too good. that the ideabe of full employment as a useful .dea but only in retrospect matthew: that is certainly part of this debate. thes more complicated than
idea that low employment leads to high inflation. one way that might be possible is that labor share of income is high and they have more bargaining power to push that through. we are kind of in an opposite situation right now. joe: everyone should read the article. our next guest is -- our next guest has co-authored a report on the keynesian approach to productivity. is research professor at the barcelona graduate school of economics and junior researcher at crei. economists tend to think of productivity as being big janessa. something comes along, some new breakthrough in technology, and
suddenly people are more productive. you argue in your paper that perhaps productivity is more cyclical and more can be done to boost productivity by boosting demand. is thatraditional view productivity is an exaggerated ogenous force. the business cycle -- we have which -- aframework cycle with volatility and productivity growth. idea that keynesian
we can create demand by generating taxation. productivity growth is endogenous. once you think of these forces together, you see there are some interactions. for instance, productivity growth is no longer enough. professor, we are having some technical difficulties in being able to hear you. we are going to end it here. we appreciate you giving us your time today. coming up, don't call it a flip phone. we have a sneak peek at the new device, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
romaine: folding phones, they are back in fashion again. mark berman spent some hands-on time with the new samsung galaxy fold. remember about a years ago when samsung launched giant smartphones and people thought it was a gimmick. samsung is hoping that will happen again and it will also turn mainstream. the galaxy fold. this is a foldable phone. user interface is fairly intuitive. it is not as intuitive as i would like when flowing between the smaller screen on the outside of the phone and the bigger screen when you open it, but i have a feeling it will
business users will probably like this thing for the multitasking. you're able to pin three applications next to each other at once. you could be looking at a video while also looking through your calendar and taking notes. the question, will people want to buy these things so soon after they hit the market given that the talent -- given that the technology is so early? caroline: great analysis on the foldable phone. let's get more with the president of technalysis. with it, youed have used it. are people going to want it? bob: they are. i got to play with it for a couple of hours last friday, and it is amazing. it is the porsche of smartphones. that experience of opening it up , it lets you do all the things that you like to do on a smart phone but in a much more compelling and satisfying way. different, it is doesn't look like any other smart phone out there. it is going to be the gadget to have for the next several months. it is very cool, again, for the people who can afford it. you use it as a normal smartphone, plus when we want to
sort of just watch a video or something, or something we want that big-screen experience. think about how you use your smart phone now. the amount of time we use it just to do phone calls and things is very limited. the first time you unfold that , this you are like, wow is what a pocket computer is all about. that's why it is so exciting. it changes the nature of how you interact with things. if you want to watch netflix full-screen, you get a great experience. it is not perfect. you can see the crease in certain lights. it didn't bother me when i used it. it is a little bulky, a little heavy. overall, i think a lot of people will be like, wow, this is cool.
romaine: we also have to think about its main competitor which of course is apple and the iphone. some news out with apple overnight about they -- about how they are ramping up production in india. things about of the india move. number one, yes, apple has a tiny presence in india right now. they want to build that presence. by doing that, they can afford the -- they can avoid the 20% import taxes. hopefully they can start to open retail stores. their idea is, by building products there, they can get wider access to retail markets. the other thing to remember is this could very well be a little bit of a hedge against manufacturing in china. if the china tariff issues get even worse, all of a sudden you've got a supply of phones coming from india where you don't have those tariff issues.
chairman the foxconn trying to talk up the opportunities in india. i want to shift to the other parts of apple at the moment. the ongoing battle, the two-year battle between qualcomm and apple seems to be coming to a head at the moment, where we had to hear tim cook have to defend the business strategy. bob: this is the trial i think everyone has been waiting for. who are really watching it closely are saying this is the big one. that is why you're hearing about cook coming in. it is a very difficult battle. you have to respect that qualcomm has had a business ip licensing. that is an established business. the question comes down to how
much can they charge for that? that gets a little bit messy. i think we have heard a lot of discussions come out over here. it is important that -- it is important for apple for the future. if they want to get a 5g phone out anytime soon, they might have to work things out with qualcomm. there have been rumors that intel may be slipping and if they don't get it out, apple will miss the 2020 fall window. some of the biggest questions are going to be addressed in this trial. we thank you.
barry -- in $1.7ould result billion in lost revenue. the estimate is set to be a key factor in deciding whether a deal makes sense. tiger woods delivered on the golf course at the masters. he just couldn't deliver the authors cbs had hoped for. an earlier start may be to blame. tee times were moved up because of rain. -- they saidaid a the rating was the highest for golf in years. coming up, why china's richest man is facing serious social
billionaire jack ma depending his alibaba staff 6 work culture, a schedule that begins at 9:00 a.m., ends at 9:00 p.m., and goes six days a week. a blog post said forcing employees to work long hours was "inhumane." you have lots of people complaining about this phenomenon, and there's a backlash. shery: we are hearing from social media posts on weibo and other sites, people saying, you can't talk about overwork without people -- without
talking about compensation for that overwork. has spurredng this criticism but he could have said something that was correct and we don't like people saying correct things. that passionve equals working really hard. caroline: so the backlashes that you are treating people isumanely, and he says this the culture that gets us places. said, iis rivals understand people can't work all day, but if you are not working hard, you are not my brother. shery: it is a cultural issue, especially in asia. we are not only talking about the tech issues in china. when i was in korea and i started my career in korea, i remember i got sick one time and
my manager would say, it is your job, it is part of your job not to be sick so you can't take sick days. romaine: japan is a pretty famous culture, too. a lot of young professionals, you would see them sleeping on the train to save time so they wouldn't have to go all the way home. is something that is widespread, death from overwork. according to government data, 190 people died last year from suicide due to that. they are limiting hours that these japanese employees can do over time and companies could get fined. joe: going back to china, we are seeing this backlash. peoplerewing on github, sharing links. is this unusual to see this kind of worker action either in china or in the tech industry? shery: i think as society
progresses, people become more aware that this is not normal. people need to achieve the life-work balance. i think we will continue to see see of these movements we in the tech industry online. caroline: great perspective, great personal perspective. how long were you working? shery: you don't want to know. at bloomberg, we all work hard. caroline: we are pretty set on our two day weekend. the shanghai auto show begins tomorrow. joe: i will be watching bank of america reporting its first-quarter earnings. romaine: more earnings, netflix reporting first-quarter earnings tomorrow after the close. bloomberg technology is up next in the u.s. this is bloomberg.